← Bundesliga 2026-27

Prediction Arena

Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.

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First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.

Model verdict

Bayern Munich 65%Draw 18%Bayer Leverkusen 17%
Bayern Munich rating
1699
Bayer Leverkusen rating
1632
Bayern Munich expected goals
2.50
Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
1.23

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19%
  • 3–18%
  • 2–07%
  • 1–17%
  • 3–06%

Beat the model

Call it before you see the model lean.

Live Form Model

Members

This season's form read against each club's established level — it updates after every final whistle and is honest about when this season disagrees with that baseline.

Checking your membership…

How the model works

Online Elo with an estimated home-advantage term plus a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, updated after every final whistle.

Matches this season
36
Home-field bump
39 Elo
Goals per side
1.73
Live formTuned to this season's form — 36 matches in.

Proven on this season's results: about 11% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss. Predictions are guidance, not betting advice.

Power ranking

Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.

  1. 1Bayern Munich1699
  2. 2Bayer Leverkusen1632
  3. 3Borussia Dortmund1620
  4. 4SC Freiburg1558
  5. 5Eintracht Frankfurt1551
  6. 6Mainz1538
  7. 7RB Leipzig1537
  8. 8VfB Stuttgart1525
  9. 9Werder Bremen1519
  10. 10FC Augsburg1503