Prediction Arena
Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.
First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.
Model verdict
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–17%
- 0–27%
- 2–16%
Beat the model
Call it before you see the model lean.
Derived markets
MembersDerived straight from the model's scoreline grid — they move with the storyline sliders, exactly like the verdict above. A statistical estimate for entertainment, not betting advice.
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Live Form Model
MembersThis season's form read against each club's past-seasons level — it updates after every final whistle and is honest about when this season disagrees with the past.
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How the model works
Online Elo with an estimated home-advantage term plus a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, updated after every final whistle.
- Matches this season
- 63
- Home-field bump
- 46 Elo
- Goals per side
- 1.36
Proven on this season's results: about 11% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss. Predictions are guidance, not betting advice.
Power ranking
Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.
- 1Sporting CP1705
- 2FC Porto1696
- 3Benfica1693
- 4Braga1592
- 5Santa Clara1551
- 6FC Famalicao1520
- 7Vitória de Guimaraes1516
- 8Arouca1491
- 9Moreirense1475
- 10Gil Vicente1464