Prediction Arena

Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.

First side

Second side

First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.

Model verdict

46%

25%

28%

Mamelodi Sundowns 46%Draw 25%Orlando Pirates 28%

Mamelodi Sundowns rating

1693

Orlando Pirates rating

1604

Mamelodi Sundowns expected goals

1.53

Orlando Pirates expected goals

1.14

Most likely scorelines

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%

Beat the model

Call it before you see the model lean.

Live Form Model

Members

This season's form read against each club's established level — it updates after every final whistle and is honest about when this season disagrees with that baseline.

Checking your membership…

How the model works

Online Elo with an estimated home-advantage term plus a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, updated after every final whistle.

Matches this season: 9
Home-field bump: 37 Elo
Goals per side: 1.45

Live formTuned to this season's form — 9 matches in.

Proven on this season's results: about 30% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss. Predictions are guidance, not betting advice.

Power ranking

Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.

1Mamelodi Sundowns1693
2Orlando Pirates1604
3Sekhukhune United1508
4Golden Arrows1499
5Polokwane City1475
6Kaizer Chiefs1460
7AmaZulu FC1459
8Durban City1425