← MTN8 2026-27

Prediction Arena

Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.

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First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.

Model verdict

Mamelodi Sundowns 38%Draw 26%Orlando Pirates 36%
Mamelodi Sundowns rating
1670
Orlando Pirates rating
1607
Mamelodi Sundowns expected goals
1.31
Orlando Pirates expected goals
1.28

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113%
  • 1–010%
  • 0–110%
  • 2–18%
  • 1–28%

Beat the model

Call it before you see the model lean.

Live Form Model

Members

This season's form read against each club's past-seasons level — it updates after every final whistle and is honest about when this season disagrees with the past.

Checking your membership…

How the model works

Online Elo with an estimated home-advantage term plus a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, updated after every final whistle.

Matches this season
6
Home-field bump
40 Elo
Goals per side
1.42
Live formTuned to this season's form — 6 matches in.

Proven on this season's results: about 29% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss. Predictions are guidance, not betting advice.

Power ranking

Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.

  1. 1Mamelodi Sundowns1670
  2. 2Orlando Pirates1607
  3. 3Sekhukhune United1522
  4. 4Golden Arrows1506
  5. 5Polokwane City1475
  6. 6Kaizer Chiefs1460
  7. 7AmaZulu FC1459
  8. 8Durban City1425