Prediction Arena
Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.
First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.
Model verdict
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016%
- 0–014%
- 1–113%
- 0–111%
- 2–09%
Beat the model
Call it before you see the model lean.
Derived markets
MembersDerived straight from the model's scoreline grid — they move with the storyline sliders, exactly like the verdict above. A statistical estimate for entertainment, not betting advice.
Checking your membership…
Live Form Model
MembersThis season's form read against each club's past-seasons level — it updates after every final whistle and is honest about when this season disagrees with the past.
Checking your membership…
How the model works
Online Elo with an estimated home-advantage term plus a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, updated after every final whistle.
- Matches this season
- 30
- Home-field bump
- 38 Elo
- Goals per side
- 1.31
Proven on this season's results: about 14% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss. Predictions are guidance, not betting advice.
Power ranking
Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.
- 1Panathinaikos1644
- 2Olympiacos1640
- 3AEK Athens1632
- 4PAOK1614
- 5OFI Crete1527
- 6Aris1513
- 7Panetolikos1503
- 8Atromitos1464
- 9Asteras Tripoli1448
- 10Iraklis1444