← UEFA Champions League 2026-27

Prediction Arena

Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.

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First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.

Model verdict

Paris Saint-Germain 36%Draw 24%Arsenal 40%
Paris Saint-Germain rating
1886
Arsenal rating
1861
Paris Saint-Germain expected goals
1.47
Arsenal expected goals
1.55

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111%
  • 1–29%
  • 2–18%
  • 0–18%
  • 1–07%

Beat the model

Call it before you see the model lean.

Derived markets

Members

Derived straight from the model's scoreline grid — they move with the storyline sliders, exactly like the verdict above. A statistical estimate for entertainment, not betting advice.

Checking your membership…

How the model works

One global cross-league Elo pool with a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, anchored on real UEFA matches so clubs from different domestic leagues sit on a single comparable scale; ratings decay toward the pool mean between seasons.

Matches in the pool
33,490
Clubs rated
405
Goals per side
1.37
History-basedAnchored on 1,259 real UEFA matches (2015-16–2024-25).

Honest edge: across 1,259 past continental games the global pool is about 11% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss (0.983 vs 1.099) — a small but real cross-league signal. It graduates to live form as this season's results land.

Power ranking

Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain1886
  2. 2Arsenal1861
  3. 3Galatasaray1848
  4. 4Liverpool1846
  5. 5Bayern Munich1844
  6. 6Barcelona1835
  7. 7Real Madrid1825
  8. 8Internazionale1813
  9. 9PSV Eindhoven1786
  10. 10Fenerbahce1773