Goals per game
2.73
110423 goals across 40465 matches in the dataset.
Prediction Arena
Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.
v
Model verdict
39%
26%
35%
Argentina 39%Draw 26%Brazil 35%
Argentina rating
2006
Brazil rating
1988
Argentina expected goals
1.41
Brazil expected goals
1.32
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–19%
- 1–28%
Beat the model
Call it before you see the model lean.
Live Form Model
MembersThe historical model blended with 2026 form — it updates after every finished World Cup match and is honest about when it disagrees with history.
Checking your membership…
By the numbers
Wildest match on record
31–0
Australia vs American Samoa, FIFA World Cup qualification 2001 — 31 goals.
Serial finalist
Germany
Reached 6 finals in the dataset.
Knockout football is brutal
59%
23592 of 39974 knockout matches were level or decided by one goal.
How the model works
An Elo rating learned by replaying history, fed into a Poisson goals model. It is a transparent baseline — not betting advice.
- Matches trained on
- 40,465
- Teams rated
- 304
- Tournaments
- 1210
- Years covered
- 1970–2026
- Base rating
- 1500
- Update speed (K)
- 32
- Home-field bump
- 65 Elo
Data: FIFA World Cup — Men's results, 1970–2022 + International men's results (non-WC-finals), 1970–present
Source: fifa_wc_mens_match_dataset_1970_2022.csv; martj42/international_results (results.csv)
Source: fifa_wc_mens_match_dataset_1970_2022.csv; martj42/international_results (results.csv)
Power ranking
Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.
- 1Argentina2006
- 2Brazil1988
- 3Colombia1931
- 4France1922
- 5Belgium1918
- 6Spain1903
- 7Netherlands1875
- 8Portugal1865
- 9Algeria1855
- 10England1836