Prediction Arena

Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.

First side

Second side

First side plays at home (adds home advantage)

Model verdict

40%

27%

34%

Netherlands 40%Draw 27%France 34%

Netherlands rating

1769

France rating

1748

Netherlands expected goals

1.35

France expected goals

1.22

Call it before you see the model lean.

Goals per game

2.57

1686 goals across 657 matches in the dataset.

Wildest match on record

10–1

Hungary vs El Salvador, FIFA World Cup 1982 — 11 goals.

Serial finalist

Germany

Reached 6 finals in the dataset.

Knockout football is brutal

68%

113 of 166 knockout matches were level or decided by one goal.

An Elo rating learned by replaying history, fed into a Poisson goals model. It is a transparent baseline — not betting advice.

Data: FIFA World Cup — Men's results, 1970–2022
Source: fifa_wc_mens_match_dataset_1970_2022.csv

Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.