← La Liga 2026-27

Prediction Arena

Pick any two sides, set the scene with the storyline sliders, and see how the model reads the match. Then go beat it.

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First side plays at home — home advantage is built into the league model.

Model verdict

Barcelona 53%Draw 20%Real Madrid 28%
Barcelona rating
1739
Real Madrid rating
1668
Barcelona expected goals
2.38
Real Madrid expected goals
1.71

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–18%
  • 2–27%
  • 1–17%
  • 3–16%
  • 1–26%

Beat the model

Call it before you see the model lean.

Live Form Model

Members

This season's form read against each club's established level — it updates after every final whistle and is honest about when this season disagrees with that baseline.

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How the model works

Online Elo with an estimated home-advantage term plus a recency-weighted Poisson goal model, updated after every final whistle.

Matches this season
66
Home-field bump
57 Elo
Goals per side
1.50
Live formTuned to this season's form — 66 matches in.

Proven on this season's results: about 8% sharper than a coin-flip on log loss. Predictions are guidance, not betting advice.

Power ranking

Strongest sides by the model's learned rating.

  1. 1Barcelona1739
  2. 2Real Madrid1668
  3. 3Atlético Madrid1646
  4. 4Athletic Club1584
  5. 5Villarreal1550
  6. 6Real Betis1543
  7. 7Alavés1517
  8. 8Sevilla1490
  9. 9Celta Vigo1488
  10. 10Real Sociedad1486